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CHINA - An elephant that Can No Longer be Ignored
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Publisher: Editura Universitara
Author: Virginia Câmpeanu, Sarmiza Pencea
ISBN: 978-606-591-508-4
DOI: 10.5682/9786065915084
Publisher year: 2012
Edition: I
Pages: 300
Product Code:
9786065915084
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Given the political regime in China, a country - two systems, there have been and still are reluctant, fed not infrequently by the European media, on the development of investment trade relations of the Member States of the European Union with China.
But trade and investment are carried out not by politicians, but by businessmen, and their orientation, primarily of the informed, has been directed more and more towards this partner, who in recent years has become the second superpower in the world, after US.
As a result, metaphorically speaking, we can no longer ignore the presence of this "elephant" - China in the world arena, being much more useful to get closer to him, to know him better, to improve relations with him and to cooperate.
Why did I choose the elephant as suggestive of China?
It has nothing to do with religious or zodiacal representations, but it is linked to its historical load and especially to the achievements of the last 30 years that have propelled it into the elite of the world economy.
But trade and investment are carried out not by politicians, but by businessmen, and their orientation, primarily of the informed, has been directed more and more towards this partner, who in recent years has become the second superpower in the world, after US.
As a result, metaphorically speaking, we can no longer ignore the presence of this "elephant" - China in the world arena, being much more useful to get closer to him, to know him better, to improve relations with him and to cooperate.
Why did I choose the elephant as suggestive of China?
It has nothing to do with religious or zodiacal representations, but it is linked to its historical load and especially to the achievements of the last 30 years that have propelled it into the elite of the world economy.
-
CHINA - Un elefant care nu mai poate fi ignorat
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VIRGINIA CAMPEANU
SARMIZA PENCEA
VIRGINIA CAMPEANU
SARMIZA PENCEA
Preface / 9
Chapter I
CHINA - THE "ELEPHANT" THAT CAN NO LONGER BE IGNORED / 11
Chapter II
WHY DOES CHINA MATTER MORE AND MORE FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION? / 2. 3
2.1. The global economic context favored the development of trade / 24
Spectacular changes in the "architecture" of the world economy / 24
The global crisis of 2008-2009 and the recovery with several speeds / 26
The crisis has induced changes in the hierarchies of the world economy / 29
Sooner or later - China the world's first superpower / 31
2.2. EU-27 trade - China has grown exponentially / 33
European Union - China 's largest trading partner / 33
From a mild syncope to a record level of bilateral trade / 33
Unsustainable EU trade deficit over China / 34
Theoretical disputes over trade deficit - resolved / 36
China - the most dynamic export market of the EU-27/37
Enormous opportunities for European business in China / 39
EU imports account for more than two-thirds of trade with China / 40
China - the main source of EU-27/40 imports
Do massive imports from China bring benefits or losses to consumers in the European Union? / 41
2.3. The European Union counts on Chinese investors / 42
China's direct investment abroad - opportunity or danger? / 42
Investing abroad - a necessity for China / 43
Towards greater convergence between the EU-27 and China / 44
Great Britain and France - champions in attracting direct investments from China / 45
Chinese direct investment in Eastern Europe focused on energy, chemical industry and telecommunications / 47
The European Union needs money, China is willing to invest huge sums / 49
2.4. The legal framework favors the development of EU27-China / 50 economic relations
European Union - supporter of China 's access to the World Trade Organization / 50
EU designates China as strategic partner / 51
Consensus elements EU-China Joint Commission / 52
European Union-China High Level Dialogue / 54
The theme of the dialogue changes after the economic crisis of 2009/54
There are still problems to be solved in EU-China relations / 57
Opportunities for economic agents in the European Union, but also barriers / 58
Chapter III
CHINA - THE ROAD TO A NEW POLE OF POWER IN THE WORLD ECONOMY / 62
3.1. We are all in a boat / 62
3.2. China 's transformation - macroeconomic developments / 66
Double-digit economic growth in 11 of the last 20 years / 66
Factors supporting economic growth in China / 70
a. Investments / 70
b. Labor productivity / 79
c. International trade / 81
d. Domestic consumption - the future engine of economic growth / 83
3.3. China - a player hard to ignore in world markets / 86
China 's impact on demand, supply, prices and international investment flows / 86
China's impact on pollution, depletion of the world's natural resources and global warming / 94
Chapter IV
CHINA FACES GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS AND WINS / 98
4.1. The first signs of the economic crisis in China and the effects on the real economy / 98
The effects of the crisis: highlighting great vulnerabilities / 99
Effects of the crisis on employment: rising unemployment / 103
4.2. Counteracting the effects of the global economic crisis / 105
Chinese development model: the state has strategic control over the direction of the economy / 105
The anti-crisis investment and fiscal stimulation package / 108
Horizontal policies: programs to revitalize exports and encourage domestic consumption / 114
Horizontal policies: capitalizing on external opportunities / 118
Vertical policies: restructuring and modernization programs in selected industries / 123
The other side of the coin? / 137
4.3. China gains new geostrategic positions / 141
China 's current global economic and strategic position / 141
Interdependence and competition China-USA / 145
China's "nuclear option" is no longer relevant / 148
China 's strategic movements in support of Europe / 150
Three poles of power with different perspectives / 153
China tightens relations with emerging economies / 154
China 's strategic investments: oil and gas / 155
Chapter V
CHINA'S OFFICIAL ON THE FINANCIAL MARKET / 159
5.1. Recent monetary policy measures adopted by the Chinese authorities / 159
Surprise decisions in 2012/161
New trends in Chinese foreign exchange reserves / 162
Liberalization of the yuan exchange rate and its gradual internationalization / 165
5.2. China 's non - banking financial sector / 173
What and how the non-banking financial system operates / 174
Peculiarities of the non-banking financial system in China / 175
Potential risks on the banking system and the real economy / 179
China regulates the non-banking sector / 181
5.3. China develops derivative financial instruments, avoiding mistakes that led to global financial crisis / 183
China introduces CDS on the financial market for risk management / 184
Foreign companies can make transactions denominated in yuan from 2010/185
Chapter VI
ROMANIA - CHINA 'S SMALL PARTNER, WITH GREAT POTENTIAL / 186
6.1. Favorable premises for the development of economic relations with China / 186
Stimulating European climate through the EU-China strategic partnership / 186
6.2. The economic potential of Romania / 188
The boom decade of the Romanian economy / 188
Romania ranks first in the hierarchy of the new Central and Eastern European member states / 189
Recession in Romania after a robust economic growth / 189
The comparative potential of the Romanian industry / 191
Growth rates of the economy among the highest in the EU-27 in the coming years / 194
6.3. Record level of Romania's trade with China in 2011/195
The national export strategy boosts exports to China / 196
What Romanian products are in demand on the Chinese market / 197
China - the fifth import source of Romania / 198
Imports from China focused on three product groups / 199
Romania's trade deficit is deepening on the China / 200 ratio
6.4. Romania 's trade in high technology products in relation to China / 201
"China phenomenon" in world trade in high technology products / 201
What products does HT export to China? and what does it matter? / 203
Romania-China trade with high technology products / 203
6.5. China and Romania in the international rankings on competitiveness and foreign trade facilities / 205
Trade Facilitation Index - ETI / 207
Logistics - strategic source of competitive advantage in the global economy / 210
Measurement of logistics performance in the field of trade and positions of China and Romania / 211
Chapter VII
SOCIOLOGICAL SURVEY REGARDING THE TRADE RELATIONS OF ROMANIAN COMPANIES WITH CHINA / 215
Introduction / 215
I. Distribution frequency analysis / 216
II. Associated analysis of the indicators used in the opinion poll / 219
PART II
I. CHINESE RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS / 222
1. TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND THE EU: STATUS, CHARACTERISTICS AND PROSPECTS / 222
1. Sino-EU trade / 222
1.1. Trade in Goods / 222
1.2. Trade in Services / 224
1.3. Trade structure / 226
The structure of trade in goods / 226
The structure of trade in services / 227
2. OUTWARD AND INWARD FDI BETWEEN CHINA AND THE EU / 228
3. ISSUES IN CHINA-EU TRADE / 229
3.1. The substantial trade in goods surplus / 229
3.2. The Frictions in the Sino-EU Trade / 230
3.3. The carbon tariff proposal / 231
4. SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE CHINA-EU TRADE / 232
4.1. Treat the trade imbalance objectively / 232
4.2. More cooperation mechanisms needed for future development / 233
4.3. Mutual understanding about the FDI policy adjustment / 234
4.4. Efforts needed for the IPR protection / 235
Conclusion / 236
5. TRADE AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION BETWEEN CHINA AND CEE COUNTRIES / 237
An overview on China-EU trade / 237
China-CEE trade and economic relations / 241
The growth model of China’s trade / 247
China’s approach to investment / 250
Opportunities and obstacles for China when investing in CEE / 252
Some recommendations / 252
For governments / 252
For investors / 253
For social actors / 53
II. COMPLEMENTARITIES AND POTENTIALS IN TRADE BETWEEN ROMANIA AND CHINA / 254
1. The general context of Romanian - Chinese trade developments / 254
• EU-27 - China trade development / 254
• Romania, as a New Member State of EU-27/256
2. Romania - China trade development / 258
3. Prospects and opportunities for the Romanian- Chinese trade / 260
ANNEXES PART I / 265
SELECTIVE SUPPLEMENTARY BIBLIOGRAPHY / 281
Chapter I
CHINA - THE "ELEPHANT" THAT CAN NO LONGER BE IGNORED / 11
Chapter II
WHY DOES CHINA MATTER MORE AND MORE FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION? / 2. 3
2.1. The global economic context favored the development of trade / 24
Spectacular changes in the "architecture" of the world economy / 24
The global crisis of 2008-2009 and the recovery with several speeds / 26
The crisis has induced changes in the hierarchies of the world economy / 29
Sooner or later - China the world's first superpower / 31
2.2. EU-27 trade - China has grown exponentially / 33
European Union - China 's largest trading partner / 33
From a mild syncope to a record level of bilateral trade / 33
Unsustainable EU trade deficit over China / 34
Theoretical disputes over trade deficit - resolved / 36
China - the most dynamic export market of the EU-27/37
Enormous opportunities for European business in China / 39
EU imports account for more than two-thirds of trade with China / 40
China - the main source of EU-27/40 imports
Do massive imports from China bring benefits or losses to consumers in the European Union? / 41
2.3. The European Union counts on Chinese investors / 42
China's direct investment abroad - opportunity or danger? / 42
Investing abroad - a necessity for China / 43
Towards greater convergence between the EU-27 and China / 44
Great Britain and France - champions in attracting direct investments from China / 45
Chinese direct investment in Eastern Europe focused on energy, chemical industry and telecommunications / 47
The European Union needs money, China is willing to invest huge sums / 49
2.4. The legal framework favors the development of EU27-China / 50 economic relations
European Union - supporter of China 's access to the World Trade Organization / 50
EU designates China as strategic partner / 51
Consensus elements EU-China Joint Commission / 52
European Union-China High Level Dialogue / 54
The theme of the dialogue changes after the economic crisis of 2009/54
There are still problems to be solved in EU-China relations / 57
Opportunities for economic agents in the European Union, but also barriers / 58
Chapter III
CHINA - THE ROAD TO A NEW POLE OF POWER IN THE WORLD ECONOMY / 62
3.1. We are all in a boat / 62
3.2. China 's transformation - macroeconomic developments / 66
Double-digit economic growth in 11 of the last 20 years / 66
Factors supporting economic growth in China / 70
a. Investments / 70
b. Labor productivity / 79
c. International trade / 81
d. Domestic consumption - the future engine of economic growth / 83
3.3. China - a player hard to ignore in world markets / 86
China 's impact on demand, supply, prices and international investment flows / 86
China's impact on pollution, depletion of the world's natural resources and global warming / 94
Chapter IV
CHINA FACES GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS AND WINS / 98
4.1. The first signs of the economic crisis in China and the effects on the real economy / 98
The effects of the crisis: highlighting great vulnerabilities / 99
Effects of the crisis on employment: rising unemployment / 103
4.2. Counteracting the effects of the global economic crisis / 105
Chinese development model: the state has strategic control over the direction of the economy / 105
The anti-crisis investment and fiscal stimulation package / 108
Horizontal policies: programs to revitalize exports and encourage domestic consumption / 114
Horizontal policies: capitalizing on external opportunities / 118
Vertical policies: restructuring and modernization programs in selected industries / 123
The other side of the coin? / 137
4.3. China gains new geostrategic positions / 141
China 's current global economic and strategic position / 141
Interdependence and competition China-USA / 145
China's "nuclear option" is no longer relevant / 148
China 's strategic movements in support of Europe / 150
Three poles of power with different perspectives / 153
China tightens relations with emerging economies / 154
China 's strategic investments: oil and gas / 155
Chapter V
CHINA'S OFFICIAL ON THE FINANCIAL MARKET / 159
5.1. Recent monetary policy measures adopted by the Chinese authorities / 159
Surprise decisions in 2012/161
New trends in Chinese foreign exchange reserves / 162
Liberalization of the yuan exchange rate and its gradual internationalization / 165
5.2. China 's non - banking financial sector / 173
What and how the non-banking financial system operates / 174
Peculiarities of the non-banking financial system in China / 175
Potential risks on the banking system and the real economy / 179
China regulates the non-banking sector / 181
5.3. China develops derivative financial instruments, avoiding mistakes that led to global financial crisis / 183
China introduces CDS on the financial market for risk management / 184
Foreign companies can make transactions denominated in yuan from 2010/185
Chapter VI
ROMANIA - CHINA 'S SMALL PARTNER, WITH GREAT POTENTIAL / 186
6.1. Favorable premises for the development of economic relations with China / 186
Stimulating European climate through the EU-China strategic partnership / 186
6.2. The economic potential of Romania / 188
The boom decade of the Romanian economy / 188
Romania ranks first in the hierarchy of the new Central and Eastern European member states / 189
Recession in Romania after a robust economic growth / 189
The comparative potential of the Romanian industry / 191
Growth rates of the economy among the highest in the EU-27 in the coming years / 194
6.3. Record level of Romania's trade with China in 2011/195
The national export strategy boosts exports to China / 196
What Romanian products are in demand on the Chinese market / 197
China - the fifth import source of Romania / 198
Imports from China focused on three product groups / 199
Romania's trade deficit is deepening on the China / 200 ratio
6.4. Romania 's trade in high technology products in relation to China / 201
"China phenomenon" in world trade in high technology products / 201
What products does HT export to China? and what does it matter? / 203
Romania-China trade with high technology products / 203
6.5. China and Romania in the international rankings on competitiveness and foreign trade facilities / 205
Trade Facilitation Index - ETI / 207
Logistics - strategic source of competitive advantage in the global economy / 210
Measurement of logistics performance in the field of trade and positions of China and Romania / 211
Chapter VII
SOCIOLOGICAL SURVEY REGARDING THE TRADE RELATIONS OF ROMANIAN COMPANIES WITH CHINA / 215
Introduction / 215
I. Distribution frequency analysis / 216
II. Associated analysis of the indicators used in the opinion poll / 219
PART II
I. CHINESE RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS / 222
1. TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND THE EU: STATUS, CHARACTERISTICS AND PROSPECTS / 222
1. Sino-EU trade / 222
1.1. Trade in Goods / 222
1.2. Trade in Services / 224
1.3. Trade structure / 226
The structure of trade in goods / 226
The structure of trade in services / 227
2. OUTWARD AND INWARD FDI BETWEEN CHINA AND THE EU / 228
3. ISSUES IN CHINA-EU TRADE / 229
3.1. The substantial trade in goods surplus / 229
3.2. The Frictions in the Sino-EU Trade / 230
3.3. The carbon tariff proposal / 231
4. SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE CHINA-EU TRADE / 232
4.1. Treat the trade imbalance objectively / 232
4.2. More cooperation mechanisms needed for future development / 233
4.3. Mutual understanding about the FDI policy adjustment / 234
4.4. Efforts needed for the IPR protection / 235
Conclusion / 236
5. TRADE AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION BETWEEN CHINA AND CEE COUNTRIES / 237
An overview on China-EU trade / 237
China-CEE trade and economic relations / 241
The growth model of China’s trade / 247
China’s approach to investment / 250
Opportunities and obstacles for China when investing in CEE / 252
Some recommendations / 252
For governments / 252
For investors / 253
For social actors / 53
II. COMPLEMENTARITIES AND POTENTIALS IN TRADE BETWEEN ROMANIA AND CHINA / 254
1. The general context of Romanian - Chinese trade developments / 254
• EU-27 - China trade development / 254
• Romania, as a New Member State of EU-27/256
2. Romania - China trade development / 258
3. Prospects and opportunities for the Romanian- Chinese trade / 260
ANNEXES PART I / 265
SELECTIVE SUPPLEMENTARY BIBLIOGRAPHY / 281
This book was written by a team of researchers from the Institute of World Economy of the Romanian Academy, based on the economic analysis of a large European and international documentation, updated official data and estimates of international bodies, as well as exchanges of opinions with our Chinese counterparts on the occasion of visits organized by the Romanian Academy and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, starting with 2004.
The book captures the amazing changes that have taken place in the last 3-4 years in the arena of the world economy, especially during the global economic and financial crisis, the change of hierarchies in international trade, the flow of foreign direct investment, the change of geo-strategic position. world economic powers. The main player in these changes is China, the European Union's strategic partner.
The essential question to which I sought an answer is whether Romania, a small partner of China in Europe, but with potential, will be able to become a significant partner of China in Southeast Europe, given that there is already competition between countries for attracting China as a trading and investment partner.
The opinions expressed belong entirely to the authors and do not represent the position of the Romanian Academy. Moreover, in order to inform the opinions of some Chinese researchers, we have introduced in Part II of the book their scientific contributions.
At the same time, the paper reveals the results of an opinion poll we conducted among Romanian companies conducting trade operations with China, on the challenges and opportunities for trade development between Romania - a member state of the European Union and China, in the wider context of the sustained development of these relations between the European Union and China.
Prof. Univ. Dr. Virginia Campeanu
Bucharest, July 2012
The book captures the amazing changes that have taken place in the last 3-4 years in the arena of the world economy, especially during the global economic and financial crisis, the change of hierarchies in international trade, the flow of foreign direct investment, the change of geo-strategic position. world economic powers. The main player in these changes is China, the European Union's strategic partner.
The essential question to which I sought an answer is whether Romania, a small partner of China in Europe, but with potential, will be able to become a significant partner of China in Southeast Europe, given that there is already competition between countries for attracting China as a trading and investment partner.
The opinions expressed belong entirely to the authors and do not represent the position of the Romanian Academy. Moreover, in order to inform the opinions of some Chinese researchers, we have introduced in Part II of the book their scientific contributions.
At the same time, the paper reveals the results of an opinion poll we conducted among Romanian companies conducting trade operations with China, on the challenges and opportunities for trade development between Romania - a member state of the European Union and China, in the wider context of the sustained development of these relations between the European Union and China.
Prof. Univ. Dr. Virginia Campeanu
Bucharest, July 2012
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